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TU Berlin

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Historical Regular Pattern of Drought and Floods in the Middle and Lower Reaches of Huaihe River and Its Application

Zhang Binglun, Wang Chengxin, Fang Zhaoben (University of Science And Technology of China, Hefei Anhui)

Based on the Twenty-five Histories, Local chronicles and other ancient books, the historical materials about drought and floods in the middle and lower reaches of Huaihe River from Han to Qin dynasty has been collected and sorted out, and a database for for the materials has been set up. Applying the processing method of drought and flood materials used by National Meteorological Bureau, we have listed rank serial data of better continuous data during the period of 1470-1975, and found out some historical regu lar patterns of drought and flood in the areas, such as the feature of group happenings and its relationship with Elnino Phenomenon and sunspots activity.By use of time sequential analysis of the materials, we have found out not only the major 60-year period, but also other minor periods, and then established a ARMA Model. We have forecast the possibility of drought and flood in the following 25 years from 1996 to 2020, and the results are shown in the figure, which indicates that there may be floods in 1998 a nd 2006 and 2019, and tend to be dry all the other years in these areas. However, it must be specified that the result of our forecasting by ARMA Model is still quit conservative and the longer it from now,the worse its accuracy will be. But if we append co ntinuously new data of recent years into the database and revised the model,the forecasting accuracy will be improved.

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